Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.727425 22.598309 24.673827 27.170131 30.122868 33.546060 37.879079
2025-01-19 18.546876 21.142064 24.258655 28.370393 33.807506 41.005319 51.760470
2025-01-26 16.476544 19.344436 22.979878 28.108988 35.508153 46.480649 65.728371
2025-02-02 15.102493 18.147328 22.178507 28.196606 37.581026 53.117379 85.616093
2025-02-09 14.101426 17.270462 21.621466 28.444609 39.873315 60.982869 114.944188
2025-02-16 13.252787 16.481229 21.047120 28.510403 41.827828 69.135379 156.371947
2025-02-23 12.448006 15.660290 20.307483 28.155379 42.903972 76.052470 209.398659
2025-03-02 11.857251 15.083948 19.856108 28.181208 44.688554 85.760662 311.095773
2025-03-09 11.295138 14.497797 19.319881 27.961661 45.904279 94.924376 482.189423
2025-03-16 10.790526 13.956306 18.796921 27.679482 46.907468 104.410899 837.739053
2025-03-23 10.347597 13.475414 18.325040 27.419469 47.897455 114.982325 1928.315301
2025-03-30 9.968430 13.066121 17.933228 27.254378 49.082905 127.876892 16130.059245
2025-04-06 9.532447 12.549539 17.332954 26.627343 49.003493 135.858281 NaN
2025-04-13 9.427479 12.543387 17.593067 27.762999 54.047187 179.364887 NaN
2025-04-20 9.109186 12.179096 17.205160 27.500720 55.053306 202.183685 NaN
2025-04-27 8.867802 11.924710 16.990322 27.580734 57.169955 241.524893 NaN
2025-05-04 8.666979 11.724501 16.855563 27.817718 59.926918 302.226305 NaN
2025-05-11 8.456904 11.497714 16.655352 27.880243 62.158093 376.336081 NaN
2025-05-18 8.208946 11.196509 16.298737 27.537911 62.828522 437.569046 NaN
2025-05-25 8.023735 10.991360 16.106823 27.562638 64.963094 568.158453 NaN
2025-06-01 7.821602 10.748938 15.829997 27.351053 66.113102 712.981881 NaN
2025-06-08 7.624646 10.507352 15.541013 27.079103 66.952799 900.483315 NaN
2025-06-15 7.441596 10.282388 15.271530 26.828468 67.838656 1186.169547 NaN